Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d83…272c sports 608 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5,884 (-6%) realized −$6,898 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%262W / 345L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$725est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$750
14 days−$1,743
30 days−$1,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$5,462
crypto 5% −$719
other 3% −$651
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -18.9% -26.7% 35% 34% -16.9%
≤30d 122 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 38% -18.7%
≤90d 526 -26.1% -33.2% 36% 35% -27.0%
all 607 -13.5% -21.8% 43% 41% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 41% -16.3%
10% -29.3% 38% -24.3%
15% -36.1% 36% -31.7%
20% -42.4% 29% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$113 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$6,898
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses262 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$725
Open positions1
Markets (closed)607 / 608
History coverage111d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 607 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 41¢ 100¢ $50 $122 +$72 (+144%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 14¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $286 +$164 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $234 −$64 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $409 +$50 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$48 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $209 +$127 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $161 −$90 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $462 −$56 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $135 −$92 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $89 +$53 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $162 +$130 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$88 +29%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $173 −$125 -72%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $491 −$131 -27%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$16 -16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$76 +75%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $172 +$157 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$163 +124%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$7 -3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$131 +129%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $122 +$52 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$256 +623%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$97 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $163 +$211 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 41¢ $51 30m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 51¢ $109 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $132 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.90 · official $121.90 (match) · 1946 history records