Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d83…8eb4 sports 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,438 (-11%) realized −$3,442 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate56%201W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 25% −$590
world 23% +$207
sports 22% −$233
politics 19% −$231
other 11% −$85
economics 0% +$16
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 69% 15% -8.8%
≤30d 29 +4.9% -5.1% 69% 17% -7.3%
≤90d 257 -3.1% -12.4% 61% 30% -10.9%
all 361 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 29% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 20% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 16% -28.4%
20% -36.5% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$27 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$2,664
Realized−$3,442
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses201 / 160
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)361 / 379
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $655 $634 −$20 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 94¢ $419 $448 +$29 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $410 $417 +$7 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $320 $318 −$2 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $216 $233 +$18 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $191 $169 −$22 (-12%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 99¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+13%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $37 $46 +$10 (+27%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 57¢ 38¢ $33 $22 −$11 (-34%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 78¢ 52¢ $25 $16 −$8 (-34%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 69¢ 62¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 20 $366 +$15 +4%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $62 $0 -1%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $54 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$67 -33%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $88 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $183 +$32 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $88 +$24 +27%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $4 $0 -2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 08 $3 $0 +16%
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles May Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $304 −$19 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $39 +$23 +58%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 05 $85 +$7 +8%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $73 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $128 −$3 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $137 +$29 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $295 +$15 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $3,034 +$75 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $102 +$15 +15%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $28 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 20 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Julia Letlow finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $65 $0 -1%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $63 +$5 +8%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $218 +$19 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $215 +$4 +2%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,569 +$33 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $191 +$10 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $130 −$14 -10%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $111 +$4 +3%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? May 01 $31 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $29 +$5 +17%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $24 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $95 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $76 16h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $73 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $145 18h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 19h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $123 19h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 24h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 25h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $18 25h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $100 25h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 25h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,663.58 · official $2,663.58 (match) · 3500 history records