Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d82…6d74 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$27
other 25% −$2
sports 7% −$7
politics 6% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.2% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 +4.2% -5.7% 41% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 40 +3.2% -6.6% 35% 8% -8.8%
all 45 -3.9% -13.0% 31% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 7% -9.1%
10% -21.4% 7% -17.8%
15% -29.0% 7% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage520d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 86¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $66 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $130 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $243 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $49 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +53%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $126 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $57 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $260 −$5 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $8 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $200 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $77 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $298 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $28 −$4 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $31 +$32 +103%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 19 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $233 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $490 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $185 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Rockets Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
UT Martin vs. SIU-Edwardsville Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will Brentford win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $53 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $12 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $38 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $28 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $8 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $58 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $17 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $48 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $66 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $64 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $50 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $15 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.47 · official $64.98 · 243 history records