Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d7d…e7e5 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,685 (+29%) realized +$1,687 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$739
7 days+$1,556
14 days+$1,646
30 days+$1,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$715
politics 33% +$713
sports 15% +$738
weather 11% −$622
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +37.3% +24.2% 83% 83% +31.8%
≤30d 16 +28.5% +16.2% 75% 75% +27.7%
≤90d 17 +20.9% +9.4% 71% 71% +10.5%
all 21 +26.7% +14.7% 71% 71% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 71% +15.4%
10% +3.7% 67% +4.4%
15% -6.3% 57% -5.7%
20% -15.5% 48% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$195 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$1,687
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage243d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$199 +130%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 +$261 +128%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $1,012 +$289 +29%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $403 +$90 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $304 +$196 +65%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$256 +84%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $202 +$120 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $375 +$145 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $289 +$122 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14? May 14 $632 −$622 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election bet Nov 05 $499 +$334 +67%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 31 $180 +$319 +178%
Vikings vs. Chargers Oct 29 $111 +$68 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $352 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 45h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1,301 45h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $493 45h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $787 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 80¢ $403 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $173 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $96 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $193 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 67¢ $2 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 67¢ $223 23d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 40d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 40d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.44 · official $198.44 (match) · 48 history records