Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0d7d…928a other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$975 (-4%) realized −$866 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%64W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$4,744
sports 22% +$529
politics 14% +$3,211
crypto 6% −$128
culture 4% +$484
tech 3% −$90
weather 1% −$48
finance 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -30.2% -36.8% 19% 19% -41.7%
≤30d 17 -28.7% -35.5% 18% 18% -38.7%
≤90d 20 -39.4% -45.2% 15% 15% -59.8%
all 198 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 31% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 31% -10.6%
10% -17.1% 30% -19.2%
15% -25.1% 29% -27.0%
20% -32.5% 29% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$91 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$866
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses64 / 134
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)198 / 202
History coverage600d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $400 $357 −$43 (-11%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $59 $5 −$54 (-92%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$110 +442%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a dr Jun 17 $20 +$72 +352%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 15 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $300 +$190 +63%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will 3 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Feb 20 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $125 −$125 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $100 +$373 +373%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $100 −$87 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-21? Jan 24 $20 +$380 +1900%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 21 $100 +$165 +164%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw? Jan 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jan 18 $400 +$5 +1%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-22? Jan 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $75 +$126 +168%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jan 12 $35 +$38 +108%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $50 +$54 +108%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 16h
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $21 40h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 40h
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $20 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 40h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 40h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a dr SELL 94¢ $93 40h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a dr BUY 20¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $37 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $410 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $48 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $585 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 65d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 65d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 65d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 92d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 61¢ $200 95d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 95d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 95d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.34 · official $390.34 (match) · 600 history records