Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d7c…a926 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% $0
politics 25% +$1
world 22% +$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 10% -9.0%
≤90d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 10% -9.0%
all 42 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage368d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $1 $0 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $25 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $2 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 02 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $22 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $23 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $23 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $14 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $36 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $7 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $30 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $11 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.09 · official $33.09 (match) · 117 history records