Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d7a…59a2 weather 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$280 (+9%) realized +$280 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$38
14 days+$18
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% +$220
other 26% +$72
sports 16% +$19
world 10% −$68
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -14.9%
≤30d 25 +2.5% -7.3% 68% 48% -3.2%
≤90d 26 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 50% -2.6%
all 26 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 50% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 50% -2.6%
10% -15.3% 31% -11.9%
15% -23.5% 15% -20.4%
20% -31.0% 15% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage30d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $308 −$68 -22%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 18 $102 +$20 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$27 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +152%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $600 +$58 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $58 −$58 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $47 +$32 +68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $221 +$25 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $301 +$23 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $133 +$25 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $200 +$29 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 27? May 27 $168 +$35 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26? May 26 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? May 24 $34 +$25 +74%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 22 $301 +$25 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ma May 20 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $101 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 69¢ $240 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 50¢ $52 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $146 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $123 10h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 80¢ $1 11h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 80¢ $68 12h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 52¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $63 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $57 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $39 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $30 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $297 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $262 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $600 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $78 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster 58¢ $47 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $246 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $221 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $325 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $301 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records