Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d78…2650 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 419d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$580 (-3%) realized −$579 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%28W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$52
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$452
politics 26% −$31
other 24% −$12
crypto 8% −$5
world 5% −$40
weather 4% +$1
finance 2% −$73
tech 1% +$7
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -12.6% -21.0% 4% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 49 -11.7% -20.1% 6% 2% -13.9%
≤90d 89 -17.6% -25.4% 11% 1% -12.5%
all 118 -11.0% -19.5% 24% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 8% -10.6%
10% -27.2% 5% -19.1%
15% -34.2% 3% -27.0%
20% -40.7% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

419d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$579
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses28 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions7
Markets (closed)118 / 125
History coverage419d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $150 $173 +$23 (+15%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+106%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+38%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 27¢ $34 $14 −$21 (-61%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 32¢ 3¢ $32 $3 −$29 (-90%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 23 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $86 −$1 -1%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 23 $50 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $6 −$2 -36%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 23 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Portugal vs Uzbekista Jun 23 $8 −$3 -35%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 23 $3 $0 -11%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $11 −$5 -44%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $60 −$3 -5%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $21 $0 -1%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Jun 23 $0 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -64%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 23 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $6 $0 -5%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -36%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the England vs Ghana Jun 23 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more Jun 23 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -12%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 -3%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wor Jun 23 $4 −$2 -68%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 23 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $35 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $12 $0 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $96 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33m
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 79¢ $14 33m
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 37m
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 78¢ $14 48m
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA SELL No 17¢ $3 56m
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA BUY No 27¢ $5 1h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 77¢ $38 1h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 77¢ $38 1h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $17 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $17 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 44¢ $21 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 45¢ $22 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $26 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 56¢ $11 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 1¢ $0 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 5¢ $2 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 59¢ $12 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 57¢ $28 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 58¢ $29 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $22 4h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 73¢ $13 4h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 74¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.76 · official $260.76 (match) · 474 history records