Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d78…b8b9 sports 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,181 (-6%) realized −$1,181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%63W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$262
14 days−$229
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -35.0% -41.1% 29% 29% -19.5%
≤30d 98 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 147 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 41% -15.2%
all 147 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 41% -15.2%
10% -25.6% 40% -23.3%
15% -32.8% 40% -30.7%
20% -39.4% 39% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$130 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses63 / 84
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage88d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 25 $150 +$17 +11%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $151 −$148 -98%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $150 −$148 -98%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $150 +$300 +200%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $150 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $299 +$435 +145%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $150 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $150 −$149 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $148 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $300 +$464 +155%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $148 +$213 +144%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $150 +$195 +130%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $151 +$9 +6%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$18 -12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $150 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $149 +$524 +352%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $152 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$149 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $54 +$61 +114%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $152 +$166 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$69 +46%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $149 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $149 +$91 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $153 +$340 +222%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $151 +$119 +79%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $148 +$131 +88%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $149 −$149 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $153 −$151 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $153 −$5 -3%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $149 −$146 -98%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $152 +$166 +109%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $150 −$148 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $153 +$222 +146%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $148 −$18 -12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $151 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $152 +$94 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 59¢ $34 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 54¢ $133 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 48¢ $150 2h
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Evictix 38¢ $151 17h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY AGELITE 45¢ $150 29h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 33¢ $150 43h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $108 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 47¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion Academy 53¢ $150 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 66¢ $148 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $734 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $297 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 55¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 57¢ $148 4d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY Inner Circle Esports 62¢ $150 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 45¢ $148 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $764 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $149 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $151 5d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Leo Team 31¢ $34 6d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Leo Team 30¢ $116 6d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 32¢ $151 6d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 48¢ $13 8d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 48¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records