Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d77…a2af politics 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$16
politics 41% −$19
sports 7% +$36
tech 4% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -2.8% -12.0% 5% 2% -9.7%
all 121 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage118d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $321 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $277 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $892 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $333 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $324 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $549 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $230 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $299 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $239 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 26 $332 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $280 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $479 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $343 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $261 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $223 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $223 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $237 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $237 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $250 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $250 29d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 30d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 30d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $291 30d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $291 30d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.94 · official $41.94 (match) · 357 history records