Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

0D 0x0d76…92b5 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$424 (+35%) realized +$445 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%7W / 16L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day10.6pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+35.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+50.0%	+35.7%	30%	30%	+47.4%
≤30d	23	+50.0%	+35.7%	30%	30%	+47.4%
≤90d	23	+50.0%	+35.7%	30%	30%	+47.4%
all	23	+50.0%	+35.7%	30%	30%	+47.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+35.7%	30%	+47.4%
10%	+22.7%	30%	+33.3%
15%	+10.9%	30%	+20.5%
20%	+0.0%	30%	+8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +82% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$157 vs −$34 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$164

Realized+$445

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses7 / 16

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions6

Markets (closed)23 / 32

History coverage4d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day10.6

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)	Argentina	8¢	8¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-11%)
Spread: Argentina (-4.5)	Argentina	5¢	2¢	$25	$12	−$13 (-52%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$2	−$2 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first?	Jun 21	$31	+$119	+388%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$77	+$191	+249%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$76	−$75	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$31	−$30	-97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	Jun 21	$31	−$30	-97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Japan (-3.5)	Jun 21	$46	+$362	+784%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	Jun 21	$36	+$129	+361%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$41	−$40	-97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 20	$41	−$40	-97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$17	+$68	+388%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)	Jun 20	$26	−$25	-98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: United States (-3.5)	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-97%
Spread: United States (-2.5)	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$109	+107%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$26	+$121	+473%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY	12¢	$41	1h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5)	BUY Argentina	5¢	$26	1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)	BUY Argentina	8¢	$77	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Arge	BUY	24¢	$51	1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O	BUY	12¢	$26	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first?	SELL Yes	100¢	$150	16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$268	16h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	43¢	$25	16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$26	17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	47¢	$76	22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	28¢	$51	22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	8¢	$31	24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	8¢	$5	24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	24h
Spread: Japan (-3.5)	SELL Japan	91¢	$408	31h
Spread: Japan (-3.5)	BUY Japan	10¢	$46	32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	9¢	$41	41h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	9¢	$41	2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	20¢	$17	2d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)	BUY Paraguay	20¢	$26	2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Morocco	13¢	$31	2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	BUY Brazil	31¢	$51	2d
Spread: United States (-3.5)	BUY United States	11¢	$26	2d
Spread: United States (-2.5)	BUY United States	30¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.32 · official $279.32 · 48 history records