Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d73…4598 crypto 557 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%239W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$127
14 days+$119
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$157
crypto 39% −$213
other 4% −$22
sports 3% −$33
politics 2% +$2
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +16.8% +5.7% 33% 33% -2.2%
≤30d 170 -14.8% -22.9% 31% 27% -9.3%
≤90d 555 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 40% -12.3%
all 555 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 40% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 40% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -20.7%
15% -31.8% 29% -28.4%
20% -38.5% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses239 / 316
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)555 / 557
History coverage41d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 59¢ 85¢ $98 $140 +$43 (+44%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $117 $106 −$11 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $245 −$73 -30%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $27 −$2 -9%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $95 −$50 -53%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $49 +$65 +135%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $70 −$8 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $60 −$13 -21%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$8 -63%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$12 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $100 +$30 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $112 −$55 -50%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $85 −$7 -8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $153 −$10 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $15 +$12 +83%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$21 +108%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $123 +$124 +101%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $111 −$22 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +212%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $65 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 +$46 +122%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $29 +$33 +114%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -79%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $29 +$74 +256%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $11 +$21 +202%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $11 +$5 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $9 +$25 +278%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $28 +$12 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $31 +$3 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$8 +128%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $9 −$9 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 31 $5 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $2 −$2 -84%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $63 −$7 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $117 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 71¢ $117 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $171 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 42¢ $172 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $45 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $45 16h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 27h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 43¢ $27 36h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $29 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $27 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $27 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $30 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 39h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $14 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $14 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 61¢ $130 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $130 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $52 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $43 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 45¢ $50 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 45¢ $50 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 66¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.92 · official $246.92 (match) · 1393 history records