Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d6c…43ab other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+12%) realized +$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 239d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$14
world 9% +$1
tech 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.0% +4.9% 100% 33% +19.7%
≤30d 3 +16.0% +4.9% 100% 33% +19.7%
≤90d 3 +16.0% +4.9% 100% 33% +19.7%
all 4 -13.0% -21.3% 75% 25% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 25% +10.6%
10% -28.8% 25% -0.0%
15% -35.7% 25% -9.7%
20% -42.0% 0% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage239d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 27h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 164d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $5 164d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 164d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.11 · official $38.11 (match) · 10 history records