Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6c…4dba crypto 961 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$150 (-3%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%499W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$16
14 days−$53
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 62% -8.1%
≤30d 961 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 46% -13.7%
≤90d 961 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 46% -13.7%
all 961 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 46% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 46% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 41% -22.0%
15% -33.2% 38% -29.5%
20% -39.8% 32% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses499 / 462
Open positions0
Markets (closed)961 / 961
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 961 Trades
no open positions (383 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2361 history records