Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d6b…a307 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$458 (+17%) realized +$479 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 42L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$595
14 days+$557
30 days+$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$667
other 17% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +33.8% +21.0% 52% 52% +16.3%
≤30d 81 +23.0% +11.3% 48% 48% +11.3%
≤90d 81 +23.0% +11.3% 48% 48% +11.3%
all 81 +23.0% +11.3% 48% 48% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 48% +11.3%
10% +0.7% 48% +0.6%
15% -9.1% 48% -9.1%
20% -18.0% 46% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$23 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$479
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 42
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 90
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 47¢ 70¢ $55 $82 +$28 (+50%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Zverev 59¢ 57¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-2%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Carstensz 34¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $28 +$58 +209%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$52 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $110 +$113 +102%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$14 -27%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $92 −$10 -11%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $55 +$28 +52%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$36 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$96 +173%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$22 -70%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $15 +$54 +351%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Jun 17 $18 +$106 +572%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $41 +$48 +119%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 +$24 +139%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $30 −$19 -63%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$32 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$15 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $61 +$41 +67%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$17 +170%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 +$59 +116%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$43 +170%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$32 +246%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$81 +81%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$22 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$30 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 +$51 +291%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$38 +62%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 59¢ $24 35m
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 23¢ $26 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $56 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 34¢ $22 2h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $85 2h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 32¢ $28 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $56 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $175 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $85 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 52¢ $49 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $25 18h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 31¢ $26 19h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $26 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 96¢ $136 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $82 21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $82 21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $55 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win BUY 18¢ $4 26h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $102 29h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY 9¢ $31 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 37h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 92¢ $152 37h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $56 39h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL 0¢ $0 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.43 · official $160.43 (match) · 149 history records