Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d6a…4ada sports 812 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,816 (+13%) realized +$14,816 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%533W / 355L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$777est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,393
other 35% +$1,504
world 0% −$9
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -32.7% -39.1% 23% 14% -58.4%
≤30d 362 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 30% -17.9%
≤90d 888 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 35% -12.6%
all 888 +8.6% -1.8% 60% 35% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 35% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 23% -21.0%
15% -19.7% 16% -28.6%
20% -27.6% 12% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$54 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14,816
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses533 / 355
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$777
Open positions0
Markets (closed)888 / 812
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 888 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Racing Louisville FC vs. Orlando Pride: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $0 +$5 +1347%
Chicago Stars FC vs. Boston Legacy FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $0 +$19 +5744%
Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $0 −$60 -32655%
AHL: Texas Stars vs. San Jose Barracuda Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 22 $84 −$95 -113%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. BSC Young Boys end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 22 $3 −$234 -7612%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brackley Town FC win on 2026-03-28? Jun 22 $286 −$287 -100%
Will CSD Xelajú MC win on 2026-04-01? Jun 22 $37 −$54 -146%
San Marino vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-03-31? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
St Mirren FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-03-29? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Mazatlán FC vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-04-03? Jun 22 $101 −$102 -101%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $98 −$99 -101%
Utah vs. Canucks Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Southend United FC vs. Yeovil Town FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
NL: Lausanne vs. Geneve-Servette Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Mantova 1911: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Hertha BSC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Juventus FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FK Teplice win on 2026-03-15? Jun 22 $5 −$6 -134%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $101 −$99 -98%
MFK Karviná vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$57 -384%
Will SC Bastia win on 2026-04-03? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-02-26? Jun 22 $59 −$68 -115%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-01-29? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-04? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Calcio Padova vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Once Caldas vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. Rangers FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2026-04-03? Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-01? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $39 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $28 2h
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $357 2h
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $257 3h
Will CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 3h
Will CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 8h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 8h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 8h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $13 18h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 24h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 24h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 24h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $95 24h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 27h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $64 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $270 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $122 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $178 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $315 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $300 2d
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $174 3d
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 3d
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $126 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records