Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d69…98cd crypto 1234 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$238 (+1%) realized +$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%740W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$5
14 days−$94
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -5.6% -14.6% 83% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 313 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 32% -8.2%
≤90d 1234 -1.8% -11.1% 60% 44% -8.9%
all 1234 -1.8% -11.1% 60% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 44% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 38% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 31% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses740 / 494
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1234 / 1234
History coverage63d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1234 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$113 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $123 +$27 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$79 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $143 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $128 +$22 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $144 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $148 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $136 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $135 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $116 −$114 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2880 history records