Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d60…5d92 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$6
other 37% +$2
politics 11% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 18% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 18% 0% -10.7%
all 30 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage451d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $38 −$6 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $111 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Starmer out before July? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +7%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 28 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $30 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 89¢ $31 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 91¢ $32 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $25 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $25 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $35 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $37 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $16 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.32 · official $28.32 (match) · 84 history records