Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0D 0x0d60…2e47 weather 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$623 (+10%) realized +$570 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate86%68W / 11L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$174
14 days+$156
30 days+$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$596
world 7% +$222
other 4% −$168
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.9% +4.8% 100% 47% +6.0%
≤30d 68 +9.9% -0.6% 90% 44% -0.4%
≤90d 73 +7.1% -3.1% 86% 44% -2.0%
all 79 +10.9% +0.3% 86% 44% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 44% -0.8%
10% -9.3% 30% -10.3%
15% -18.0% 18% -18.9%
20% -26.1% 10% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$41 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$570
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses68 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage121d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? No 70¢ 100¢ $131 $187 +$56 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? No 87¢ 100¢ $109 $126 +$17 (+15%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $66 $50 −$16 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $41 +$14 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $217 +$35 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $97 +$35 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$18 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$13 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $122 +$32 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$26 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $109 −$36 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $71 +$22 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $87 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$48 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $83 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $36 −$31 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $183 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $365 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $111 +$12 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $32 +$19 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $111 +$26 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $171 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $126 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $54 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $160 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 30? May 31 $53 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 30? May 30 $467 −$91 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $84 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $133 +$73 +55%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $80 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 28? May 29 $239 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $57 −$56 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $117 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $55 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $27 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $7 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $69 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $49 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 30h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 41h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.86 · official $382.46 (match) · 341 history records