Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d5f…c88e crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+15%) realized +$232 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%62W / 20L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day88.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$160
other 9% +$40
sports 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 34% +3.4%
≤30d 82 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 34% +3.4%
≤90d 82 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 34% +3.4%
all 82 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 34% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 34% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 33% -6.5%
15% -28.0% 9% -15.5%
20% -35.0% 7% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$232
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses62 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day88.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 72¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 40¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$78 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 30m
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 32m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.76 · official $131.75 · 303 history records