Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0D 0x0d5c…1c3d crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+9%) realized +$25 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$25
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
crypto 40% +$6
sports 8% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.2% +11.5% 78% 56% +10.9%
≤30d 24 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 58% -0.3%
≤90d 24 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 58% -0.3%
all 24 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 58% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 58% -0.3%
10% -3.6% 54% -9.8%
15% -12.9% 54% -18.5%
20% -21.5% 38% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 +$17 +106%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$14 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$10 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.39 · official $24.39 (match) · 55 history records