Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d5b…6efa crypto 68 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -17.2% -25.1% 38% 28% -18.0%
≤30d 68 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 29% -21.7%
≤90d 68 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 29% -21.7%
all 68 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 29% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 29% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 18% -29.2%
15% -41.3% 13% -36.0%
20% -47.1% 12% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$6 +546%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records