Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d5b…5c95 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$88 (+2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260
7 days+$219
14 days+$219
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$28
sports 44% −$389
crypto 11% +$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +56.4% +41.5% 44% 44% -1.8%
≤30d 10 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 40% -7.4%
≤90d 10 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 40% -7.4%
all 10 +40.7% +27.3% 40% 40% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.3% 40% -7.4%
10% +15.1% 40% -16.3%
15% +4.0% 40% -24.4%
20% -6.2% 30% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$268 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage15d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $914 $0 −$914 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 1¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$330 +596%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $592 −$39 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $505 −$308 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $483 +$416 +86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $933 −$914 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $678 +$259 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $386 +$599 +155%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $250 −$120 -48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $223 −$220 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $385 49m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $55 55m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $553 56m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $592 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $197 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $899 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $483 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $933 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $936 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $678 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 25¢ $242 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $986 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $386 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 1¢ $30 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 19¢ $30 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 75¢ $123 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 38¢ $122 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $97 3d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $223 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records