Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d53…7523 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$288 (+11%) realized +$253 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate79%55W / 15L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$184
14 days+$184
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$205
crypto 14% +$58
politics 11% +$9
world 8% +$19
finance 4% −$1
sports 2% +$14
tech 2% −$16
economics 1% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.1% +6.0% 83% 83% +12.3%
≤30d 22 +11.0% +0.4% 82% 73% +9.3%
≤90d 43 +0.3% -9.2% 72% 60% +5.2%
all 70 +2.9% -6.9% 79% 56% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 56% +4.2%
10% -15.8% 40% -5.8%
15% -24.0% 27% -14.9%
20% -31.4% 14% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized+$253
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses55 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)70 / 89
History coverage460d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $290 $325 +$35 (+12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 87¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-25%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 86¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 47¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-55%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$51 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$46 -92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $355 +$96 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 22 $20 +$5 +22%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$5 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 28 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $156 in May? May 28 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 28 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? May 28 $20 +$14 +66%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 28 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? May 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 02 $20 +$4 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $10 +$2 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 16 $1 $0 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $13 −$9 -69%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Apr 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 09 $10 +$1 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 09 $10 +$6 +59%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $67 +$5 +7%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 24 $70 +$7 +10%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 04 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 04 $106 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 02 $30 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $30 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $4 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 42h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $91 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.46 · official $947.49 (match) · 412 history records