Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d50…0ff6 crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+0%) realized +$179 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%122W / 2L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$19
other 31% +$155
politics 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 50 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 2% -8.6%
all 124 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.44 per $1 lost it wins $13.44
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses122 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)124 / 131
History coverage206d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $120 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $249 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.50 June 8-14? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 8? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $170 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in May? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 01 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $500 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $180 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 03 $170 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 03 $523 +$20 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 03 $899 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 13-19? Apr 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $817 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 April 13-19? Apr 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 April 13-19? Apr 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $539 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 13-19? Apr 14 $163 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19? Apr 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 11 $806 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 09 $599 +$1 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $545 +$103 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $399 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 27 $199 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Mar 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 26 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 19h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 8d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 11d
Will XRP dip to $0.50 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $101 12d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 13d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 14d
Will XRP dip to $0.50 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $101 14d
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $105 18d
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $170 28d
Will BNB reach $900 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 30d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 30d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $500 30d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.65 · official $986.65 (match) · 332 history records