trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | Jun 07 | $2 | −$1 | -41% |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | Jun 02 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | Apr 26 | $8 | −$1 | -15% |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Apr 22 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Apr 19 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Mar 22 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -40.8% | -46.5% | 0% | 0% | -46.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -13.1% | -21.4% | 33% | 0% | -13.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -17.4% | -25.2% | 25% | 0% | -11.4% |
| all | 8 | -17.4% | -25.2% | 25% | 0% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.2% | 0% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -32.4% | 0% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -38.9% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -44.9% | 0% | -34.7% |