Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d4d…1674 weather 955 markets active 9h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$495 (+1%) realized +$481 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate91%865W / 86L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$472
14 days+$434
30 days+$1,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$1,066
world 5% −$683
politics 1% +$26
other 0% +$14
tech 0% +$32
finance 0% +$23
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +4.1% -5.8% 91% 37% -5.4%
≤30d 504 +1.9% -7.8% 91% 29% -5.6%
≤90d 859 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 23% -9.5%
all 951 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 22% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 22% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 7% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 3% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$36 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$481
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses865 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)951 / 955
History coverage121d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 951 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $86 $92 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $61 $74 +$13 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? No 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $77 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 +$19 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$11 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $165 +$24 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $42 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$20 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 −$41 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $48 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$15 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$11 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $82 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $37 +$20 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $58 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$35 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$8 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 +$14 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$15 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $194 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $87 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 6¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 45¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $62 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $31 11h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $46 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $76 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $57 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $45 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $27 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $61 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $38 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $35 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 25¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 27¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 28¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.75 · official $165.75 (match) · 2647 history records