Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d4b…b152 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%37W / 50L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$9
politics 20% +$1
sports 20% −$4
other 12% +$2
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 70 +2.1% -7.6% 41% 4% -9.2%
all 87 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 50
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage535d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $107 −$4 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $39 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $159 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $55 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $151 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $48 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $78 −$1 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $54 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $171 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $83 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $84 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $56 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $63 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $63 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $55 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $62 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $23 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $61 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.57 · official $5.78 (match) · 376 history records