Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0D 0x0d45…49ea crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$224 · open +$142

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$321per market

Trades / day38.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-4.8%	-13.9%	26%	26%	-26.2%
≤30d	19	-4.8%	-13.9%	26%	26%	-26.2%
≤90d	19	-4.8%	-13.9%	26%	26%	-26.2%
all	19	-4.8%	-13.9%	26%	26%	-26.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover38.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-13.9%	26%	-26.2%
10% ← realistic here	-22.1%	26%	-33.2%
15%	-29.6%	26%	-39.7%
20%	-36.5%	26%	-45.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$533) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +13% → late -20% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$645 vs −$313 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$597

Realized−$224

Unrealized+$142

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$321

Trades / day38.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	13¢	24¢	$239	$440	+$201 (+84%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET	Up	64¢	46¢	$216	$157	−$59 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET	Jun 19	$317	−$317	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 19	$251	+$226	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 19	$302	−$51	-17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 19	$283	+$337	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 19	$314	−$314	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 19	$342	−$342	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 19	$256	−$256	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET	Jun 19	$566	−$566	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 19	$533	−$533	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 19	$446	+$909	+204%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 19	$314	−$314	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 19	$700	−$700	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 19	$210	−$210	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 19	$107	+$653	+613%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 19	$638	−$638	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 19	$553	+$1,102	+199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 19	$54	−$54	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 19	$64	−$64	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 19	$23	−$23	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$223	0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$127	1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$46	1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$81	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$251	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	SELL Down	36¢	$251	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$302	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$106	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$211	34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$283	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$314	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$342	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$54	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$290	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$222	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$128	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$128	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$107	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$107	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$107	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$106	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$446	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$209	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$491	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$209	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$210	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$107	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$107	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.89 · official $297.43 · 58 history records