Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d45…973a crypto 1572 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,792 (-8%) realized −$2,792 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%574W / 955L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$90
14 days−$318
30 days−$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,637
sports 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +27.8% +15.6% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 325 +4.8% -5.2% 32% 31% -14.9%
≤90d 1335 -12.5% -20.9% 36% 35% -23.1%
all 1529 -7.8% -16.6% 38% 36% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 36% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 33% -26.5%
15% -31.9% 30% -33.6%
20% -38.5% 27% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,792
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses574 / 955
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1529 / 1572
History coverage102d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1529 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $32 +$62 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $413 −$396 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $139 +$276 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $72 +$67 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$50 +228%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$26 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$41 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$28 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$39 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$48 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$67 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$20 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $275 −$261 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $163 +$112 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$113 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$41 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$24 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $94 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $413 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $139 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $22 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $18 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $18 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $37 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3359 history records