Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d44…6b0a sports 713 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%705W / 8L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day70.8pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,978
other 13% +$322
world 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 2% -8.6%
≤30d 441 +5.1% -4.9% 98% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 713 +6.8% -3.3% 99% 1% -10.4%
all 713 +6.8% -3.3% 99% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 1% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 1% -19.0%
15% -21.0% 1% -26.8%
20% -28.8% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$519) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$806 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses705 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)713 / 713
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$436
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 713 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Constanta: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere Jun 17 $334 $0 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels Jun 17 $266 $0 +0%
ITF Maanshan: Jia Hu vs Jaesung Choe Jun 17 $248 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Polina Leykina vs Lara Schmidt Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $998 +$1 +0%
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp Jun 17 $309 $0 +0%
ITF Bucharest: Kenzie Ana Rabbat vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 17 $134 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $159 $0 +0%
ITF Bolszewo: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Weronika Falkowska Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova Jun 17 $83 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $47 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,646 +$9 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $522 +$4 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $523 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,001 +$8 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $512 +$4 +1%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: Both Teams t Jun 15 $651 +$6 +1%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $786 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $279 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,441 +$22 +1%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 14 $2,200 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5,729 +$61 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $212 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $67 $0 +1%
AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $124 +$1 +1%
São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $84 +$1 +1%
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,100 +$10 +1%
São Bernardo FC to score first vs. SC Recife? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $635 +$5 +1%
Libema Open (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Neel/Olmos Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $156 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,321 +$21 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,997 +$14 +1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $551 +$4 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Cattolica (Doubles): Cornea/Cukierman vs Genov/Whitehouse Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1,889 +$17 +1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $75 +$75 +100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $152 +$1 +1%
ITF Cuiaba: Sofia Cohen Perovani vs Rebeca Pereira Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 100¢ $160 28m
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki BUY Takuya Kumasaka 100¢ $17 28m
ITF Maanshan: Jia Hu vs Jaesung Choe BUY Jaesung Choe 100¢ $248 35m
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki BUY Takuya Kumasaka 100¢ $15 40m
ITF Tokyo: Takuya Kumasaka vs Yuki Mochizuki BUY Takuya Kumasaka 100¢ $50 43m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 100¢ $360 44m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 100¢ $371 44m
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels BUY Louis Wessels 100¢ $201 47m
ITF Constanta: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere BUY Edoardo Cherie Ligniere 100¢ $334 49m
ITF Klosters: Polina Leykina vs Lara Schmidt BUY Polina Leykina 100¢ $40 1h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 100¢ $10 1h
ITF Klosters: Polina Leykina vs Lara Schmidt BUY Polina Leykina 100¢ $91 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 100¢ $80 1h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 100¢ $99 1h
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels BUY Louis Wessels 100¢ $15 1h
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp BUY Rose Marie Nijkamp 100¢ $83 1h
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp BUY Rose Marie Nijkamp 100¢ $20 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 100¢ $23 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 100¢ $5 1h
ITF Bucharest: Thea Marcu vs Rose Marie Nijkamp BUY Rose Marie Nijkamp 100¢ $206 1h
ITF Bucharest: Kenzie Ana Rabbat vs Daria Yesypchuk BUY Daria Yesypchuk 100¢ $134 1h
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels BUY Louis Wessels 100¢ $50 1h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 100¢ $50 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Weronika Falkowska BUY Weronika Falkowska 100¢ $78 1h
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova BUY Selena Janicijevic 99¢ $12 1h
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova BUY Selena Janicijevic 100¢ $71 1h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 99¢ $6 2h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 99¢ $39 2h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 99¢ $20 2h
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion BUY Ilinca Dalina Amariei 100¢ $64 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records