Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d42…f124 sports 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$25,281 (+48%) realized +$26,137 · open −$856
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 63L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Fees−$510est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$1,448
other 22% −$796
politics 12% −$41
finance 9% $0
weather 7% −$389
tech 2% +$32
world 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +588.0% +522.5% 100% 100% +774.0%
≤30d 120 +31.2% +18.7% 50% 32% -6.6%
≤90d 127 +30.2% +17.8% 50% 34% -6.7%
all 127 +30.2% +17.8% 50% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.8% 34% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here +6.6% 21% -15.7%
15% -3.7% 18% -23.8%
20% -13.2% 15% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$70 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,367
Realized+$26,137
Unrealized−$856
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$510
Open positions121
Markets (closed)127 / 161
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 121 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 34¢ 38¢ $341 $378 +$37 (+11%)
Paraguay leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 100¢ $18 $299 +$281 (+1565%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 46¢ 44¢ $303 $289 −$14 (-5%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 62¢ 64¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $150 $133 −$17 (-11%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $195 $129 −$66 (-34%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $107 $97 −$10 (-9%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $58 $87 +$29 (+50%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $76 $69 −$7 (-9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $79 $58 −$20 (-26%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $51 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $66 $42 −$24 (-36%)
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $67 $39 −$28 (-42%)
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $27 $38 +$12 (+43%)
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No 40¢ 35¢ $39 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Atlanta Falcons next? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 47¢ 65¢ $21 $29 +$8 (+37%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 2¢ 2¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $37 $18 −$19 (-51%)
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $39 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $39 $17 −$22 (-56%)
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $77 $17 −$60 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $24 +$276 +1165%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $739 +$88 +12%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,413 +$17 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $406 +$13 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $925 −$118 -13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $969 +$136 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $345 −$103 -30%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,717 +$142 +8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,226 −$231 -19%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$3 +6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $964 +$183 +19%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $375 +$43 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $619 +$163 +26%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $932 +$2 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $420 +$119 +28%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $1,218 +$203 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $603 −$100 -17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $265 −$17 -6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $45 −$43 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $87 −$79 -91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $234 −$74 -32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $198 +$135 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $144 −$79 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $278 −$164 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$8 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $113 +$15 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $170 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $106 +$14 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 −$47 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $119 −$29 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $215 −$119 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $115 −$16 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 −$29 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $167 +$31 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 +$24 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 −$41 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$3 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $420 +$157 +38%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 +$73 +1303%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $677 −$99 -15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $354 +$1 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $350 +$39 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, SELL No 100¢ $11 8m
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $133 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $227 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $211 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 38¢ $122 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $102 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $140 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $9 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $38 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $34 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $249 1h
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $21 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $68 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 47¢ $43 2h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 47¢ $212 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,367.05 · official $2,361.58 (match) · 3500 history records