Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0d3d…c2e8
politics · 106 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$1,632 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,630 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,069
Realized−$1,630
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses33 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,050
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$17
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,070 $1,069 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,232 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $2,128 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,102 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $985 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $514 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $7,260 −$7 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,993 −$5 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,357 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,632 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 19 $410 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,305 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,537 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,145 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $1,917 −$1,917 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $2,252 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $132 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-14? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Rockets vs. Magic Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-07? Mar 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Mar 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-02? Mar 20 $113 −$113 -100%
Stars vs. Canucks Mar 20 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $2,853 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$57
other 34% −$72
sports 15% −$1,464
culture 5% −$7
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% +$2
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,070 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $917 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $918 10h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 27h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 29h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,008 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $999 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,001 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $873 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $874 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,150 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $984 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $985 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $702 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $703 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $666 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $667 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $710 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $705 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $705 16d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $711 16d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $712 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $514 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,137 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -19.3% -27.0% 11% 0% -12.6%
all 105 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 11% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 11% -10.9%
10% -18.1% 11% -19.4%
15% -26.0% 9% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,069.39 · official $1,069.39 (match) · 334 history records