Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d32…6a15 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$3
world 34% $0
culture 12% +$1
other 12% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 0% -9.3%
all 25 -2.9% -12.2% 68% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -8.9%
10% -20.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage428d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $25 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $29 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $16 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $86 +$3 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend Pope Francis' funeral? Apr 24 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? Apr 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 2h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $28 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $28 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $21 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $25 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $25 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $11 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $17 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.72 · official $27.72 (match) · 71 history records