Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d30…5f85 sports 691 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,064 (+8%) realized +$2,065 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%350W / 339L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$461
14 days−$611
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.7% -29.2% 39% 35% -46.3%
≤30d 97 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 42% -14.6%
≤90d 689 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 47% -3.8%
all 689 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 47% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 47% -3.8%
10% -17.4% 43% -13.0%
15% -25.3% 35% -21.4%
20% -32.7% 28% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$32 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$2,065
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses350 / 339
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions2
Markets (closed)689 / 691
History coverage75d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 36¢ 44¢ $19 $24 +$4 (+24%)
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Under 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nava vs. Stewart: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $33 −$32 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 +$17 +181%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $353 −$347 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $33 −$2 -6%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $67 +$56 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $29 −$28 -99%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$1 -10%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 19 $27 −$14 -51%
Li vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $23 −$4 -15%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $34 +$25 +73%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $127 +$53 +42%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $114 −$111 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $32 +$17 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $25 +$11 +46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $17 +$10 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $15 +$4 +29%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $318 +$239 +75%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $286 −$283 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $14 +$17 +124%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $6 +$7 +119%
Paul vs. Perricard: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$2 +17%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $26 −$26 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $40 −$3 -9%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $21 −$4 -19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $26 −$3 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $25 +$22 +90%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5) Jun 04 $25 +$17 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 04 $4 +$5 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 69¢ $33 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 36¢ $19 1h
Nava vs. Stewart: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 2h
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 47¢ $353 11h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 66¢ $52 12h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 62¢ $50 12h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 40¢ $31 12h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $33 12h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $9 12h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres $3 12h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 62¢ $10 15h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $29 15h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) SELL Toronto Tempo 48¢ $11 16h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $12 16h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 81¢ $11 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $67 17h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $13 21h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ $27 21h
Li vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over $2 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 21¢ $20 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 24¢ $23 2d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 50¢ $0 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 57¢ $0 2d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 41¢ $9 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 70¢ $127 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 57¢ $34 2d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 24¢ $114 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.54 · official $23.54 (match) · 1435 history records