Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d2e…f1a2 weather 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (477 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21,172 (+2%) realized +$20,905 · open +$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%540W / 8L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,922per market
Trades / day477.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% +$4,316
politics 20% $0
other 1% +$137
crypto 0% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (477 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 548 +8.7% -1.7% 99% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 548 +8.7% -1.7% 99% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 548 +8.7% -1.7% 99% 1% -9.4%
all 548 +8.7% -1.7% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover477.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 1% -9.4%
10% -11.1% 1% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -19.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -27.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,694) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$59 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.04 per $1 lost it wins $12.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$63,682
Realized+$20,905
Unrealized+$267
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses540 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions31
Markets (closed)548 / 569
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$1,922
Trades / day477.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $12,176 $12,183 +$6 (+0%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $11,181 $11,278 +$97 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,701 $9,706 +$5 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,182 $6,185 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,006 $3,008 +$2 (+0%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,871 $2,983 +$112 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,421 $2,422 +$1 (+0%)
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,163 $2,248 +$85 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,921 $1,922 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,115 $1,116 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,057 $1,057 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,007 $1,007 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $786 $786 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $778 $778 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $762 $763 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $744 $745 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $700 $701 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $760 $675 −$85 (-11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $612 $613 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $538 $538 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $534 $534 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $464 $497 +$32 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $377 $377 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $333 $333 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $258 $258 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 23? Jun 17 $323 −$323 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 84°F or higher on Jun Jun 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $3,287 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1,561 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 17 $278 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $344 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $246 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 17 $941 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $927 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $962 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $844 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $370 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? Jun 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $388 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $361 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $162 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $401 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $382 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3,104 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,581 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3,217 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $388 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,232 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3,609 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10,468 +$10 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,767 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $643 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,810 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,731 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $673 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $712 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5,854 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $2,646 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $983 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 6m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $95 10m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $505 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $85 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $49 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 13m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $786 13m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $62 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 33m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,898 40m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 49m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun BUY No 100¢ $1,115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $258 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,681.51 · official $63,681.51 (match) · 3500 history records