Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d2e…1330 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+11%) realized +$51 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate79%57W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$22
other 7% +$3
sports 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +28.8% +16.5% 79% 56% -9.6%
≤30d 72 +28.8% +16.5% 79% 56% -9.6%
≤90d 72 +28.8% +16.5% 79% 56% -9.6%
all 72 +28.8% +16.5% 79% 56% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 56% -9.6%
10% +5.4% 33% -18.3%
15% -4.8% 25% -26.2%
20% -14.1% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses57 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$24 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +109%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 24m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 8h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 9h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.78 · official $4.78 (match) · 139 history records