Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:56:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d2d…dff7 crypto 965 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,597 (-6%) realized −$2,597 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate75%724W / 241L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$425
other 15% −$236
weather 15% −$268
crypto 5% −$374
world 5% −$311
finance 1% +$5
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 444 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 21% -12.5%
≤90d 937 -6.5% -15.4% 75% 15% -13.6%
all 965 -6.0% -14.9% 75% 16% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 16% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 9% -21.3%
15% -30.5% 5% -28.9%
20% -37.3% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses724 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)965 / 965
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 965 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif Jun 19 $53 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $52 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $114 −$3 -3%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $219 +$6 +3%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $458 −$5 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $226 $0 -0%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $113 $0 +0%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jun 18 $112 +$1 +0%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will England win? Jun 18 $106 +$4 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $107 +$1 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $104 +$3 +3%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $171 +$1 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $201 +$3 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $193 +$3 +2%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $199 −$37 -19%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 04 $88 +$2 +2%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 04 $35 $0 -1%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $195 +$2 +1%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Norbert Gombos Jun 04 $249 +$5 +2%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $81 +$3 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on June 4? Jun 04 $18 $0 +2%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $48 +$1 +2%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $89 −$24 -28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on June 4? Jun 04 $18 $0 +2%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Birmingham: Felix Gill vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $40 −$10 -25%
Birmingham: Ashlyn Krueger vs Janice Tjen Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Philip Henning Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Halys/Herbert vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $228 +$10 +4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $9 $0 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $78 +$2 +3%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $9 −$3 -30%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 03 $24 $0 -2%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Nika Radisic Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Tyler: Fajing Sun vs Andre Ilagan Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Boston Red Sox 99¢ $54 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $54 1h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 100¢ $54 12h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 98¢ $53 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 93¢ $53 15h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 91¢ $52 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 87¢ $111 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 89¢ $56 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 89¢ $9 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 89¢ $49 15h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $115 16h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 96¢ $86 16h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 96¢ $24 16h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 90¢ $110 16h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 88¢ $108 16h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $109 17h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $107 18h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 70¢ $106 19h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 79¢ $121 19h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 81¢ $121 20h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 78¢ $7 21h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 78¢ $41 21h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 78¢ $31 21h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 78¢ $36 21h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 78¢ $1 21h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 70¢ $117 21h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 67¢ $114 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 94¢ $112 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 95¢ $113 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 66¢ $113 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records