Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0D 0x0d2b…510e sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$177 (+119%) realized +$174 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +254% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +195% what you keep after slip
Net edge+195%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$174
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$112
other 15% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+220.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +253.9% +220.2% 62% 62% +124.6%
≤30d 8 +253.9% +220.2% 62% 62% +124.6%
≤90d 8 +253.9% +220.2% 62% 62% +124.6%
all 8 +253.9% +220.2% 62% 62% +124.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +220.2% 62% +124.6%
10% +189.5% 62% +103.1%
15% +161.6% 62% +83.5%
20% +135.9% 50% +65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +148% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +254% · $-wt +148% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$13 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.57 per $1 lost it wins $5.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$174
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 12¢ 100¢ $5 $42 +$37 (+733%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 13¢ 100¢ $3 $23 +$20 (+669%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 +$37 +711%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$20 +649%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +440%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 +$20 +49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $21 +$91 +440%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $21 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $41 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.94 · official $65.24 (match) · 17 history records