Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d23…70f7 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-11%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$33
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$13
other 22% −$33
tech 8% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -99.8% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.8%
≤30d 28 -14.4% -22.5% 61% 50% -32.3%
≤90d 29 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 48% -33.9%
all 29 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 48% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 48% -33.9%
10% -32.3% 41% -40.2%
15% -38.9% 38% -46.0%
20% -44.9% 21% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage70d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $7 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 26d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 95¢ $7 27d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 48 history records