Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d22…59b4 crypto 133 markets active 1d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-3%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate51%68W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.5% -28.1% 19% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 17 -25.2% -32.3% 18% 0% -17.4%
≤90d 133 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 27% -15.5%
all 133 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 27% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 27% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 21% -23.5%
15% -35.1% 13% -30.9%
20% -41.5% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses68 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage65d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $141 −$70 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $122 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $162 −$23 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $270 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $356 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $77 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $96 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $82 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $135 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 25 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $33 −$28 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 16 $98 −$58 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $144 −$26 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 16 $142 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 16 $162 −$32 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 16 $44 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 16 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 16 $67 +$24 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 16 $149 −$39 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 16 $46 +$30 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 16 $89 +$27 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $88 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 16 $59 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 16 $78 −$38 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $107 −$22 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 16 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 16 $35 −$30 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 16 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $60 +$31 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 15 $13 +$17 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 15 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 15 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 15 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $70 −$15 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $91 −$21 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.49 · official $193.49 (match) · 2387 history records