Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d21…8b80 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 669d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$4
politics 38% −$4
other 10% −$1
world 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 +1.2% -8.4% 29% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage669d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $400 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $400 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $456 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Oct 29 $95 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 09 $96 −$1 -1%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 27 $48 $0 -0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? Jul 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024? Jan 22 $6 +$2 +25%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 17 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 29 $21 +$1 +5%
Will a Republican win Utah Presidential Election? Oct 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? Oct 14 $1 $0 +3%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Oct 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $985 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $199 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 35d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 38d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 38d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 38d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 85d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $110 85d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $110 86d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 86d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 106d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $232 106d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $228 106d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 108d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $228 108d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $226 108d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $228 108d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $232 108d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 108d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 145d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $47 145d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $47 181d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $48 181d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $48 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records