Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d20…2032 sports 292 markets active 17h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate77%220W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$18
other 19% −$3
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 50% -16.7%
≤30d 98 +2.3% -7.4% 78% 59% -6.5%
≤90d 260 +4.7% -5.3% 77% 66% -8.7%
all 285 +5.1% -4.9% 77% 66% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 66% -8.0%
10% -14.0% 40% -16.8%
15% -22.3% 28% -24.9%
20% -29.9% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses220 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)285 / 292
History coverage97d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+54%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $17 +$1 +8%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $6 +$1 +13%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 31 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $1 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $6 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 17h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 82¢ $1 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 44h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 47h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 87¢ $1 47h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 96¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 97¢ $15 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $10 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.98 · official $99.99 (match) · 708 history records