Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0d1e…407a
crypto · 334 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$66 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$165 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses108 / 220
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)328 / 334
History coverage225d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 6 History 328 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 01 $2 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 19? Apr 27 $3 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $1 +$2 +152%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $1 +$2 +216%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$2 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 29 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 28 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 28 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 28 $1 +$2 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 28? Jan 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$165
sports 18% +$10
other 15% −$8
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 50¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $1 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 46d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 33% -46.0%
≤30d 6 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 33% -46.0%
≤90d 30 -15.1% -23.2% 37% 37% -24.2%
all 328 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 32% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 32% -27.6%
10% -31.8% 30% -34.5%
15% -38.4% 28% -40.9%
20% -44.4% 26% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.69 · official $5.69 (match) · 748 history records