Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d1d…9caa other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
politics 22% −$8
sports 5% +$16
tech 4% −$2
economics 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 +2.2% -7.6% 10% 9% -9.5%
all 99 +2.2% -7.6% 10% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 9% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage86d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 52¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $419 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $425 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $410 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $362 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $352 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $699 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $340 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $331 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $358 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $331 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $340 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 28 $337 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $360 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 20 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $369 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $351 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $662 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $334 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $347 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 14 $361 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $348 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 24h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $77 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $77 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 11d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 15d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.81 · official $183.81 (match) · 281 history records