Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d1d…92bd crypto 791 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$404 (+4%) realized +$404 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%410W / 380L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$163
14 days+$118
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 59% -5.6%
≤30d 451 -0.7% -10.2% 59% 59% -6.9%
≤90d 790 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 52% -7.3%
all 790 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 52% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 52% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 43% -16.2%
15% -28.6% 32% -24.3%
20% -35.6% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$404
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses410 / 380
Open positions1
Markets (closed)790 / 791
History coverage42d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 37¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 359 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$13 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$27 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$7 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$11 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$30 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$17 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $17 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $17 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.26 · official $8.58 · 1739 history records