Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d18…24a6 crypto 228 markets active 12h ago coverage 125d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$460,226 (+245%) realized +$460,226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%121W / 107L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$824per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$22,840
other 36% +$33,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.3% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤30d 1 +49.3% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤90d 1 +49.3% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.0%
all 228 +3.8% -6.0% 53% 49% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 49% +17.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 49% +6.1%
15% -23.2% 48% -4.1%
20% -30.8% 46% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$748 vs −$324 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$460,226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses121 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$824
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67,000 +$33,000 +49%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 16 $0 $0 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 16 $242 −$103 -42%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $70 −$66 -94%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$4 +93%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 16 $8 +$8 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 16 $156 +$184 +117%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 16 $177 +$186 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $221 +$192 +86%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $297 +$240 +81%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $335 +$314 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 16 $340 +$327 +96%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $502 +$387 +77%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 16 $558 +$470 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $676 +$606 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $3,310 +$2,741 +83%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 16 $8 +$10 +117%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 16 $21 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $15 +$14 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $22 +$20 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $45 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $46 +$42 +92%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 16 $49 +$46 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 16 $82 +$68 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 16 $122 +$109 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $179 +$152 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 16 $831 −$829 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 16 $758 −$758 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 16 $135 −$134 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 16 $173 −$173 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 16 $120 −$118 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 16 $210 −$209 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 16 $75 −$75 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $19 −$19 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 16 $24 −$23 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 14 $2 +$2 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 14 $4 +$2 +48%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 14 $24 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 14 $40 −$16 -39%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 14 $28 −$3 -11%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$19 +92%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 14 $29 +$28 +95%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 14 $36 +$35 +97%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 14 $48 +$43 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 14 $154 −$47 -31%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 14 $66 +$60 +91%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 14 $73 +$62 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $796 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $66,204 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $51 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $101 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $621 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $131 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $28 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 120d
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $156 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $172 120d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records