Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0d15…c454 world 88 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$61,028 (-6%) realized −$79,266 · open +$18,238
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$11,158per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$1,011est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$313,782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$157,423
other 15% −$26,046
sports 8% +$3,978
crypto 4% −$11,067
tech 1% +$1,303
economics 0% +$4,221
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -66.0% -69.3% 23% 15% -61.5%
≤30d 24 -16.3% -24.2% 58% 42% -19.1%
≤90d 57 +27.6% +15.4% 72% 54% +5.4%
all 61 +25.7% +13.7% 72% 56% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.7% 56% +4.4%
10% +2.8% 43% -5.6%
15% ← realistic here -7.1% 26% -14.7%
20% -16.2% 18% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$13,212) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +61% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,647 vs −$5,465 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$313,782
Realized−$79,266
Unrealized+$18,238
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,011
Open positions40
Markets (closed)61 / 88
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$11,158
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $61,494 $67,626 +$6,131 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 89¢ $51,563 $53,473 +$1,910 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $43,283 $48,416 +$5,133 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $25,030 $25,821 +$791 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $21,477 $23,766 +$2,288 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $13,105 $14,480 +$1,375 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $26,475 $13,997 −$12,479 (-47%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $9,140 $9,570 +$430 (+5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 20¢ 42¢ $3,875 $8,096 +$4,221 (+109%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $5,443 $7,985 +$2,542 (+47%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $6,812 $6,986 +$173 (+3%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 98¢ $2,000 $4,910 +$2,910 (+145%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 70¢ 84¢ $3,864 $4,625 +$761 (+20%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $3,750 $4,300 +$550 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 78¢ $3,672 $3,843 +$171 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $3,483 $3,506 +$23 (+1%)
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $2,550 $2,700 +$150 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $1,128 $1,178 +$50 (+4%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $967 $1,039 +$73 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $440 $998 +$558 (+127%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 41¢ 42¢ $960 $987 +$27 (+3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 76¢ 48¢ $1,520 $950 −$570 (-38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $522 $884 +$362 (+69%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 96¢ $621 $851 +$229 (+37%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 85¢ $656 $743 +$87 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $34,420 −$6,465 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 14 $560 −$560 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $342 −$342 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $771 −$771 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,202 −$1,202 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 14 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,890 −$9,890 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15,557 −$15,557 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15,893 −$15,893 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $5,040 +$960 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $730 +$270 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3,565 +$149 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $726 +$1,136 +156%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $21,931 +$867 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $6,648 +$297 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $3,423 +$1,843 +54%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $19,923 +$4,490 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,789 +$833 +30%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64,589 +$5,411 +8%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $2,037 +$963 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $7,760 +$8,240 +106%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 26 $8,600 +$1,400 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 22 $8,400 +$1,600 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $31,441 +$11,239 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $8,323 +$28,436 +342%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $15,821 +$4,236 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? May 06 $12,042 −$12,042 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $560 −$560 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 06 $852 −$852 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15,711 +$897 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $57,359 +$18,444 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $111,744 +$16,151 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $179 +$179 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,930 +$1,557 +32%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9,137 +$681 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $23,285 +$8,098 +35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 19 $1,038 +$32 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $5,159 +$1,314 +26%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $906 +$90 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $28,619 +$115 +0%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $5,850 +$3,150 +54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $19,602 +$1,157 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $6,776 −$2,113 -31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $24,230 −$6,191 -26%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $6,000 −$5,980 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $4,113 +$1,680 +41%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $177 +$780 +442%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,707 +$671 +39%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $4,000 +$1,000 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $1,520 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $25,030 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,872 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $323 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $659 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $168 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5,040 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $840 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15,567 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $833 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $214 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $216 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $522 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,034 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,875 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3,810 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $3,833 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,554 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4,350 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,796 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $3,576 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $96 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $434 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $456 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $262 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5,247 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313,781.51 · official $313,746.23 (match) · 3500 history records