Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d12…543b sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,473 (-9%) realized −$1,423 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$809
7 days+$634
14 days+$563
30 days−$1,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,054
politics 25% −$524
world 9% −$1,341
other 9% −$101
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -52.9% -57.3% 17% 17% +32.4%
≤30d 35 -13.1% -21.3% 34% 34% -18.8%
≤90d 44 +11.8% +1.2% 43% 43% -14.9%
all 44 +11.8% +1.2% 43% 43% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 43% -14.9%
10% -8.5% 34% -23.0%
15% -17.4% 25% -30.5%
20% -25.5% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$505) neutral
Persistence
early +48% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$218 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized−$1,423
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage64d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $700 $705 +$5 (+1%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 71¢ 52¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $102 −$56 -54%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 −$28 -55%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $814 +$939 +115%
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 28 $19 −$4 -22%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $102 −$55 -54%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $104 +$14 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $303 +$126 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $303 +$129 +43%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $304 +$95 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$462 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,010 −$56 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $37 +$185 +499%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $510 −$80 -16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $505 +$164 +32%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,796 +$727 +40%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $878 −$558 -64%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,251 −$694 -56%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$15 -30%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $388 −$388 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $300 +$89 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $437 +$168 +38%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 28 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 28 $510 −$510 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $102 +$374 +365%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $506 +$109 +22%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $509 +$140 +28%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 18 $101 +$95 +93%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 17 $10 +$2 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $103 +$656 +637%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $100 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 71¢ $202 0m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 11¢ $47 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 23¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1,063 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 74¢ $690 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $306 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $508 1h
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 23h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 20¢ $46 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $118 5d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $303 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $303 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $1 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 38¢ $102 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 38¢ $102 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $156 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $101 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $124 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $102 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $119 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $880.26 · official $880.30 (match) · 188 history records