Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0D 0x0d10…7075 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$61 (+49%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$67
other 11% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +48.2% +34.1% 50% 50% +30.4%
≤30d 6 +48.2% +34.1% 50% 50% +30.4%
≤90d 6 +48.2% +34.1% 50% 50% +30.4%
all 6 +48.2% +34.1% 50% 50% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.1% 50% +30.4%
10% +21.2% 50% +17.9%
15% +9.5% 50% +6.5%
20% -1.2% 50% -4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$17 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $22 +$67 +300%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 +$24 +137%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $27 −$10 -36%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$13 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $22 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $41 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $17 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $27 6h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $28 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 86¢ $19 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 93¢ $9 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records